Medicare Advantage Segment Revenue to Triple to $1.1 Trillion by ‘29

Today, Nephron’s Josh Raskin and team released a report updating their thoughts on the growth of Medicare Advantage within Managed Care. The Medicare Advantage segment is arguably the most important and most dynamic segment of health insurance today (and likely the next several years). We have remained bullish on this sector for a long period of time and today we are updating our thoughts on the overall sector. Broadly speaking, we now see even higher overall industry revenue projections, with a particularly sharp increase in the short term. While MA revenues grew at 9.1% from 2010-2018 (quite robust), we estimate that the 5 year CAGR from 2018-2023 will be 18.0%. Over that time, we expect the industry to add $300B in annual revenues. For some perspective, CMS estimates total Managed Medicaid spending in 2019 to be $311B. By 2029, we estimate the MA industry will be a $1.1 trillion opportunity.

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